Brexit

[Sportin' Life]

Interesting days indeed for Britain and the world. I wonder if the Trumpians over here will take the rational view and see that voting to isolate a country in a time of international markets has immediate and large adverse economic impacts or will they (more likely) be able to spin the reality more to their liking. Good luck with the next Prime Minister, it seems now that the parties are all in too much disarray to mount a legitimate challenge to Johnson, but do try.

[DzM]

Thanks firehazard. I am pleased to note that I was correct - someone that actually understands things over there can provide a much better history of this train wreck than I can.

But! Interesting Google trends coming out of this:

30x increase in Google searches for the term "Irish passport". It seems that people in Northern Ireland, in particular, are thinking of getting out.

A nice big bounce in "what is the eu" after the polls close

There's a small bump in searches for "Canada," "Australia," and "New Zealand" but not much for "United States." (Actually - there was a much larger Aus/NZ bump on June 18. Did something happen on June 18?). What's really awesome is to scroll to the bottom of that report and look at the "related searches."

[soulfinger]

Not just the people in Northern Ireland. I am lucky enough to come from a long line of Paddies and I am exercising my right to apply for Irish Citizenship; which will hopefully be soon followed by an Irish Passport. Once I have one, both my kids - one of whom lives and works in an EU Country - will be applying too!

[Heather]

Not just the people in Northern Ireland. I am lucky enough to come from a long line of Paddies and I am exercising my right to apply for Irish Citizenship; which will hopefully be soon followed by an Irish Passport. Once I have one, both my kids - one of whom lives and works in an EU Country - will be applying too!

Lucky sod.

My Irish heritage is about 4 or 5 generations ago.

[firehazard]

...(Actually - there was a much larger Aus/NZ bump on June 18. Did something happen on June 18?)...

Could it be, in fact, rugby-related? Wales played New Zealand and England played Australia on that very day.

No Irish ancestry anywhere close enough for us to be applying for Irish passports, unfortunately.

Youngest daughter, escaping from the London floods which caused a fair amount of chaos on Thursday, flew out to go to a friend's wedding in France on the morning after the referendum. "Not sure if I'll come back," she said. Her boss phoned her that morning to say that the financial institution she works for was in meltdown and her job might not survive long.

About 25% of the staff, and a significant proportion of the funding, at the scientific institute our eldest daughter works for in Manchester comes from Europe, so the future there is very uncertain. She reckons moving to Scotland might be a good bet, assuming they can sort out their own referendum, which they probably will do soon.

Meanwhile the assumption is that the appalling Boris Johnson will become Tory leader and therefore also Prime Minister, which is a thought somewhere between risible and terrifying. Most of his party's MPs actually hate him as an incompetent lying chancer, but the party faithful love him, and the Tory leader is elected by the party members, so it's a more or less nailed-on certainty. Be afraid. USA, learn from this.

Actually there's an element of classic revenge tragedy in this story. Johnson (I won't refer to him simply as "Boris" - beware of politicians widely known by their first name alone) went to the same school and university as Cameron (they were fellow members of the secretive right-wing Bullingdon Club at Oxford), and the two were always rivals sharing the ambition for political office. Michael Gove, another nasty Tory ideologue, was for many years one of Cameron's closest friends, and their wives were probably even closer. And then Cameron snubbed Gove by refusing to give him the cabinet post he treasured. The payback is that Gove joined Johnson as de facto leaders of the "leave" campaign, in deliberate opposition to Cameron, despite the fact that neither of them really believed in that cause. And revenge was had.

Possibly the most terrifying thing of all is the apparent legitimisation of racist and xenophobic attitudes that this destructive campaign has unleashed. Worrying times ahead.

[Tal]

The other day was a sad ,sad day for me .
I got up early to turn my car engine over for one last time. A car I have owned for 10 years was involved in a hit & run which has resulted in my car been written off.The other party hit me passenger side full on .I would be at work when it was loaded on to the salvages truck.

Then I got the result of the referendum.
Although it was the way I had feared it was not the way I voted.

All the campaign the media has focused on the Tory views. Racist ,Xenophobic, Sectarian ,Islamophobic and all from investment bankers .
The good & right thing to do for all was never mentioned. It was all about immigration & dirty asylum seekers.
In another era it would have been Jews & Gypsies to blame.
No positive of EU membership was mentioned.

A sad ,sad day indeed.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Clva4bbWgAAD7AC.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Clva4bbWgAAD7AC.jpg:large link image


An Irish passport may solve some issues .But I feel not just a stranger in a strange land but a very unwelcome one.

[Fr. McGreer]

Small minded idiots.

Never underestimate the power of stupidity!

Total fucking idiots.

I was over in England at the funeral of my best mates' father. After a few beers we got chatting about the upcoming referendum. He said he was voting leave because of all the foreign refugees coming over. I asked him had he forgotten his father had been an Irish immigrant in the 1960's?

Maybe it's because his father was white and spoke English.

[DzM]

It seems as though the whole "leave the EU" thing isn't quite going as well as had been hoped.

Scotland mulling a "Yeah, well how 'bout we STAY in the EU and leave the UK?" vote.

Northern Ireland mulling a "well, maybe Ireland still wants us" proposition.

The EU (and more particularly Germany) more or less saying "OK. Fine. Hurry the hell up. Let's go. Chop chop!"

Mr. Johnson, of all people, urging "calm." AND many from the Leave campaign now awkwardly admitting that they really didn't think through HOW to actually leave 'cause they didn't think they'd ever possibly win. So NOW they're trying to figure out what "leave the EU" actually means from an implementation point of view.

Good times.

Update: Standard&Poors and Fitches have both lowered their rating of UK credit worthiness (from AAA to AA and from AA+ to AA respectively). Additionally the stock market crashes that have happened since the referendum have (so far) evaporated more than $2 Trillion in value, just shy of %5 of the market value. So that's cool.

[firehazard]

We're still feeling pretty devastated here, to be honest.

And the "promises" made by the leave campaign turn out to be utterly bogus. Their biggest claim of the supposed financial benefits is admitted to be a figure that was "extrapolated".

Reported attacks, both verbal and physical, on people of non "white British" ethnicities and/or nationalities have increased by more than 50% in the days since the vote. In the next town to us on Friday, the day after the vote, cards were being distributed to kids and parents outside primary schools saying "Leave the EU. No more Polish Vermin" [sic] (printed in English and Polish), and posted through letterboxes of families of Eastern European descent.

The economy is screwed.

The Tory party is split in half (which, admittedly, is always a cheering sight, or would be in less serious times). The Labour party has gone into full self-destruct mode.

And perhaps the worst thing of all is that, unlike an election, when in a few years' time you have the chance to vote the bastards out of office again, this is different. It's done. Decision made. No way out (or back in). The country has fucked itself, permanently, for no good reason.

[DzM]

My sympathies, FH.

In the big scheme of things, life will go on. In the short term there's going to be a lot of economic/employment pain. The xenophobes will eventually slither back into their caves.

Honestly, I'm still hanging a surprisingly large amount of hope on the Queen just announcing "Hahaha. Jokes over. We're staying in. Screw you guys."

Also - on the plus side there's a reasonably good chance that we'll be joining you in Bad Decisions in about five months. "President Trump." Let that sink in.

[Low D]

The Tory party is split in half (which, admittedly, is always a cheering sight, or would be in less serious times).

John Oliver referred to it on Sunday night as "like catching an ice cream cone that went flying through the air after leaving the hand of a small child who was hit by a car. You're still going to eat it, but it won't taste quite as good...."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEALC1z3QG8

[Mike from Boston]

So, it looks like the regulars on the Raft were in the Remain camp. As an American, didn't really pay much attention until the actual vote, the night it happened I stayed up late watching the results and the resulting shock on the CNN announcers faces.

So, interested in what is being said here. Based on the little I have read, I would lean towards Exit, just based on the fact that it seems incredible to me that unelected commissioners in Brussels could be making decisions that would affect my town and country. On the other hand, from a personal, selfish, financial perspective, I would vote Remain, as the Brexit as caused me (on paper) some serious (5 figures) financial losses. Here is an opinion from one of the financial newsletters to which I subscribe:

It looks like the always boozed-up European Union chief Jean-Claude Juncker really has something to get drunk about now…
The U.K.’s historic decision to exit (“Brexit”) the European Union has the establishment in full meltdown…
They’re thrashing about like a possessed Linda Blair in “The Exorcist” when splashed with holy water… “The will of the people… it burns… it burns.”
European elites now want a re-vote until the Brits get it “right”… or perhaps they ignore the referendum altogether. But that’s not going to stick. The British people have spoken. And I don’t think the world will ever be the same.
Elites Be Damned. CNN’s teleprompter reading dolts spent months calling the Brits xenophobes, racists, fascists and stupid.
All because they wanted to reclaim the right to govern themselves. Well, the Brits sent everyone a clear message last week: Bug off.
They rejected the establishment’s “hair on fire” fear campaign to keep the U.K. under the oppressive thumb of Brussels’ unelected bureaucracy.
And frankly, if you’re not feeding at the Eurocrat trough, Brexit is easy to understand and appreciate.
Brits simply voted to restore local government rule that had been outsourced to drunken party boys living off trust funds in other countries. If you believe that’s racist or fascist, then perhaps a call to your shrink with a major load up on lithium is in order. Did you know that the EU has unaccountable commissioners with the power to legislate and overrule the elected parliaments of member states?
That setup would have worked well for Stalin circa USSR’s heyday… but it’s not a good fit for the British. And contrary to media narratives straight out of Hollywood scriptwriters, the Brexit movement wasn’t hijacked by some tiny, far-right faction of Hitler youth.
Nearly one-third of left-leaning Labour voters voted for Brexit. Turnout? 72.2%! That’s higher than any U.K. general election since 1992. And the 52% total vote cast for Brexit is higher than any winning governing party since 1931.
Nearly one-third of left-leaning Labour voters voted for Brexit. Turnout? 72.2%! That’s higher than any U.K. general election since 1992.
Elites be damned.
The British have had enough of the erosion of sovereignty, 10 years of interest rate manipulation and politicians bought and paid for by sketchy Middle Eastern “new” money.
Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty. What does the Brexit mean to the markets? One word: Uncertainty.
Nobody knows what will happen next. Don’t be surprised if the British pound and British stocks have a rocky summer. Don’t be surprised if all markets get rocky. Could Brexit lead to another collapse like 2008? Sure, it’s possible. But let’s not forget the role of central banks.
After Friday’s chaos, global central banks announced they stand at the ready to intervene should any liquidity issues arise. What if they all decide to deploy their “helicopter money?” Instead of a collapse, we could get a melt up. Actually typing that makes me chuckle. “Trusting” central banks to take care of us…
My point is… you can’t make investment decisions based on the assumption that a market collapse is not guaranteed. There’s also a larger point that many market analysts are ignoring…
The Real Reason Why the Markets Are Spooked. I believe the U.K. will be fine. It’s the world’s fifth-largest economy. And it will only get more competitive as it escapes from the EU’s “one world government” fantasy.
The real question is what happens to the EU from here? That’s what markets are worried about.
The German and French markets fell almost twice as much as British markets on Friday. And that’s because Brexit is far worse for the EU than it is for the U.K.
Matthew Lynn of MarketWatch nails it…
Much of the EU is in far worse economic shape [than the U.K.] Italy’s economy is smaller now than it was way back in 2000. Spain has been close to the edge of bankruptcy, and has seen unemployment soar past 20% of the workforce. France is stuck in endless recession, and struggling to maintain competitiveness against Germany…
In those countries, people have genuine reasons to be angry with the EU. If the British can get out and the economy survives, as it will, then why not the Italians or the French? It will be harder and harder to make the case for staying.
That’s where the real danger and opportunity lies. A Eurozone break-up would be a major market event with implications as serious as the global financial crisis. Many large European banks would fail. That could lead to a Lehman Brothers-type crisis writ large.
A Eurozone break-up would be a major market event with implications as serious as the global financial crisis. Many large European banks would fail.
I actually see something possible far beyond Lehman.
We could see so-called respected nation states literally disintegrate like Syria, becoming borderless “Mad Max” swaths of land where “Lord of the Flies” becomes the law.

[firehazard]

That long post repeats many of the "sovereignty" arguments of those on the political right pursuing their own agenda in various countries around the world. But the vote here was very little to do with sovereignty. That argument was only marginally used by the Brexiteers of the Tory party, maybe conscious that historically their party has always relied on the unelected House of Lords to support their parliamentary agenda, and that the current Tory government, with its tiny majority susceptible to rebellion from their own members, has repeatedly been happy to use the arcane procedure of statutory instruments to avoid having to engage in parliamentary debates that they might lose. They're on very dodgy ground themselves when talking about parliamentary sovereignty. And the leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, has stood himself in UK parliamentary elections in this country seven times, and failed to get himself elected every time; so he tends not to focus on parliamentary sovereignty himself.

Contrary to the opinion of your columnist, whoever he/she may be, by far the main focus of the debate in this country was immigration - stirred up by regular headlines in the populist right-wing press invoking scare stories about "migrants", most of these stories with little or no basis in fact. And, again contrary to his/her opinion (an opinion based on what other than typically libertarian fantasy, I don't know), this has brought to the surface a frankly horrible swell of racism and xenophobia in this country. The repeated response of "Brits" asked why they voted to leave is simply "to get rid of the immigrants".

And one of the outcomes of all this, in a country that's now more deeply divided than I can ever remember (and I remember life under Thatcher; and this was not the overwhelming popular uprising that your columnist seems to imagine), is that what's left of the UK is about to end up with a Prime Minister elected not by the UK electorate, but by paid-up members of the Tory party, in other words around 130,000 people out of a UK population of approximately 64.1 million. There's sovereignty for you.

[Fr. McGreer]

Here here Firehazard. The race card was top trump. The very narrow minded view of the 'little Englanders' has fucked up the future of the very country they so fervently cherish. I guarantee that 100% of the yobs that followed the English football team to the Euros would have voted leave if they were in the country last Thursday. They will be the first to complain when they are delayed, segregated and checked at passport control at Alicante airport on the way to two weeks pissing it up in Benidorm. They've all stood in the queue and looked over at the gate that says 'Non EU Residents' and maybe 2 or 3 people being questioned on arrival and smiled in their smugness of being in the in-crowd while the guard takes a cursory glance at their unflattering mugshot and waves them on as they laugh when they say "grassy arse".

But it's more than just this trivial inconvenience, so much more.

[DzM]

"Boris Johnson says he won't run for Prime Minister."

What the hell? YOUR head-buffoon is NOT running for head of state?